Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science

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Prediction of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Using Frequency Analysis for Nekemte Town, Oromia, Ethiopia

Received: Aug. 23, 2023    Accepted: Sep. 05, 2023    Published: Sep. 27, 2023
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Abstract

Rain is a scanty and vital hydrological factor in arid and semi-arid regions. The amount of runoff produced and rainfall received determine the development of water resources in any region. An important step in the analysis of rainfall frequency is to choose an appropriate distribution to represent the depth of rainfall to study rainfall. Analyzing the frequency of various rainfall data was attempted by Gumbel, Log normal, and Log person type III distribution method. The projected rainfall can be calculated with the aid of frequency analysis. Annual rainfall data for 22 years (2000-2021) were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) for Nekemte station. The goal of this study is to identify the optimal theoretical probability distribution by fitting it to the maximum yearly rainfall for one day, two days, and three days distribution for the prediction of maximum annual rainfall for daily, two consecutive days, and three consecutive days. For the determination of goodness of fit chi-square, percentage absolute deviation, and the integral square error was carried out by comparing the expected values with the observed values. The results found showed that the log-normal, distribution emerged to be the best fit for the prediction of annual maximum rainfall values of Nekemte for one day. And also, another best fit was Gumbel distribution for two, and three consecutive days.

DOI 10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12
Published in Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science ( Volume 12, Issue 1, February 2023 )
Page(s) 12-22
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Chi-Square, Rainfall, Gumbel, Log Normal, Log Pearson Type III

References
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[2] A. Kandpal, S. Kanwal, and A. Gosain, “Estimation of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall using Different Probability Distributions and Their Comparsion,” pp. 100–106, 2015.
[3] L. Kaur, Anvesha, M. Kumar, S. L. Verma, and P. Kumar, “Annual maximum rainfall prediction using frequency analysis for roorkee, uttarakhand, india,” Mausam, vol. 72, no. 2, pp. 359–372, 2021, doi: 10.54302/mausam.v72i2.623.
[4] S. R. Bhakar, A. K. Bansal, and N. Chhajed, “Frequency Analysis of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall At Banswara, Rajasthan, India,” J. Inst. Eng. Agric. Eng. Div., vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 14–16, 2006.
[5] N. Kumar Sharma and A. Kumar, “Frequency analysis of rainfall data of Dharamshala region,” MATEC Web Conf., vol. 57, 2016, doi: 10.1051/matecconf/20165703013.
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[11] M. Barkotulla, … M. R.-J. of D., and undefined 2009, “Characterization and frequency analysis of consecutive days maximum rainfall at Boalia, Rajshahi and Bangladesh,” Academicjournals. Org, vol. 1, no. 5, pp. 121–126, 2009, [Online]. Available: https://academicjournals.org/journal/JDAE/article-full-text-pdf/AC6BD373876
[12] K. Subramanya, “Engineering Hydrology. Chapter 7, McGraw Hill Book Co. Inc., New Delhi,” 2009.
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[14] B. Sisay, “Assessment of Design Practices and Performance of Small-Scale Diversion Weirs Constructed for Irrigation Project (a Case Study of Ashar and Upper Kuashini Small-Scale Irrigation Schemes in Awi Zone, Dangla Woreda),” 2022.
[15] E. Abel, “Investigation Of Causes Of Diversion Weir Failure (A Case Study On Marza Small-Scale Irrigation Scheme , South Gondar, Ethiopia),” 2021.
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[17] R. M. Sabarish, R. Narasimhan, A. R. Chandhru, C. R. Suribabu, J. Sudharsan, and S. Nithiyanantham, “Probability analysis for consecutive-day maximum rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City (south India, Asia),” Appl. Water Sci., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 1033–1042, 2017, doi: 10.1007/s13201-015-0307-x.
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  • APA Style

    Gemechu Mosisa. (2023). Prediction of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Using Frequency Analysis for Nekemte Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science, 12(1), 12-22. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12

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    ACS Style

    Gemechu Mosisa. Prediction of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Using Frequency Analysis for Nekemte Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. J. Water Resour. Ocean Sci. 2023, 12(1), 12-22. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12

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    AMA Style

    Gemechu Mosisa. Prediction of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Using Frequency Analysis for Nekemte Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. J Water Resour Ocean Sci. 2023;12(1):12-22. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12,
      author = {Gemechu Mosisa},
      title = {Prediction of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Using Frequency Analysis for Nekemte Town, Oromia, Ethiopia},
      journal = {Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science},
      volume = {12},
      number = {1},
      pages = {12-22},
      doi = {10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wros.20231201.12},
      abstract = {Rain is a scanty and vital hydrological factor in arid and semi-arid regions. The amount of runoff produced and rainfall received determine the development of water resources in any region. An important step in the analysis of rainfall frequency is to choose an appropriate distribution to represent the depth of rainfall to study rainfall. Analyzing the frequency of various rainfall data was attempted by Gumbel, Log normal, and Log person type III distribution method. The projected rainfall can be calculated with the aid of frequency analysis. Annual rainfall data for 22 years (2000-2021) were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) for Nekemte station. The goal of this study is to identify the optimal theoretical probability distribution by fitting it to the maximum yearly rainfall for one day, two days, and three days distribution for the prediction of maximum annual rainfall for daily, two consecutive days, and three consecutive days. For the determination of goodness of fit chi-square, percentage absolute deviation, and the integral square error was carried out by comparing the expected values with the observed values. The results found showed that the log-normal, distribution emerged to be the best fit for the prediction of annual maximum rainfall values of Nekemte for one day. And also, another best fit was Gumbel distribution for two, and three consecutive days.},
     year = {2023}
    }
    

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    AU  - Gemechu Mosisa
    Y1  - 2023/09/27
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    T2  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
    JF  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
    JO  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
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    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20231201.12
    AB  - Rain is a scanty and vital hydrological factor in arid and semi-arid regions. The amount of runoff produced and rainfall received determine the development of water resources in any region. An important step in the analysis of rainfall frequency is to choose an appropriate distribution to represent the depth of rainfall to study rainfall. Analyzing the frequency of various rainfall data was attempted by Gumbel, Log normal, and Log person type III distribution method. The projected rainfall can be calculated with the aid of frequency analysis. Annual rainfall data for 22 years (2000-2021) were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) for Nekemte station. The goal of this study is to identify the optimal theoretical probability distribution by fitting it to the maximum yearly rainfall for one day, two days, and three days distribution for the prediction of maximum annual rainfall for daily, two consecutive days, and three consecutive days. For the determination of goodness of fit chi-square, percentage absolute deviation, and the integral square error was carried out by comparing the expected values with the observed values. The results found showed that the log-normal, distribution emerged to be the best fit for the prediction of annual maximum rainfall values of Nekemte for one day. And also, another best fit was Gumbel distribution for two, and three consecutive days.
    VL  - 12
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Author Information
  • Department of Hydraulic and Water Resource Engineering, College of Engineering and Technology, Wallaga University, Nekemte, Ethiopia

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